Trends in Oil and Gas Demand and Their Implications for Exporting Countries

The Lead Report from the 2025 edition of the Policy Dialogue for Just Energy Transitions shows most energy forecasters predict that global oil and gas demand could peak as early as 2030, even without new climate policies. Clean alternatives to oil and gas are increasingly available to align energy security, affordability, and environmental sustainability objectives, especially in importer countries. Policies aiming to jointly achieve these goals will bolster the transition, accelerating the decrease in oil and gas demand.

An emerging challenge is that a peak and decline in demand will push down oil and gas prices which can have a profound impact on economies that depend on oil and gas exports, including stresses on fiscal budgets, balance of payments difficulties, loss of access to foreign exchange and macroeconomic shocks.

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